What will the shipping industry look like in 2050?
For the marine industry, the course has been set: The regulations of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) require the shipping industry’s carbon footprint to be reduced by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2008. At the same time, the projected increase in shipping emissions is driven by the growth of international trade. The IMO predicts that shipping emissions could grow by between 50 to 250% by 2050: based in industries growth scenarios.
MAN Energy Solutions has championed the Maritime Energy Transition since 2016. They not only develop technological solutions but also support an appropriate global regulatory framework – and they want to provide a platform for in-depth discussion.
To date, there are only a few medium/long-term studies that provide an outlook on major reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and most scenarios focus on technology only.
Therefore, has MAN Energy Solutions commissioned the Fraunhofer-Institute for Systems and Innovations Research (ISI) to develop holistic scenarios that incorporate a long-term view to-wards 2050. These holistic scenarios take into account all relevant factors affecting the transition process, including changes in lifestyle and thinking, economic growth, regulation and digitalization.
With this study they present four different future scenarios for shipping in 2050. They provide valuable insights for the whole industry and may contribute to better understanding and decision-making.
In Scenario A, the IMO objectives are achieved within the target time frame. A big step toward a carbon-neutral future has been taken. In addition, the strong climate policy targets from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are reached to achieve 2°C climate stabilization. Technological
change has created a clear competitive advantage for the shipping industry and is acting as a driver for growth.
Hanging on to old ways.
In Scenario H, climate change policy continues to be supported by a limited number of countries only. The shipping industry fails to reach IMO climate targets. The division within society increases conflicts between groups in favor and against the targets. Left to their own devices, markets fail to drive true technological change; they carry on with business as usual. For shipping, this means that liquefied natural gas (LNG) becomes the main alternative to heavy fuel oil (HFO) and diesel fuels, since it does not require great changes in operations or behavior.
Out of control.
In Scenario O, the IMO objectives fail. The decarbonization of shipping and the reduction of GHGs cannot be systematically implemented. Only a few stakeholders are driven by climate change impacts. In fact, the development of low-carbon fuels (LCF) is stagnating. The shipping industry is focused on increasing the efficiency of fossil fuel technologies and also benefits from low oil prices and economic growth. Society turns away from a sustainable lifestyle. With a lack of support from most governments, climate policy to achieve GHG mitigation fails.
Yes we can?
In Scenario Y, the strong climate policy targets from the UNFCCC and the IMO objectives have been more than achieved by 2050. Low-carbon technologies for shipping become state of the art. Changes in global culture result in a sluggish or even shrinking economy. Climate change and a sustainable lifestyle are priorities. Alternative goals to conventional economic growth are developed. There is no “catch-up“ by developing countries.
Go to download the study to learn more about the four different scenarios on what shipping industry might look like in 2050. Get valuable insights for a better understanding and decision making.
Source: MAN Energy Solutions